October 5, 2022

Apple cuts shipping forecast for new MacBook Pro models ahead of mass production [Kuo]

Apple has reportedly lowered its internal shipment forecast for next-generation 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro models ahead of mass production, according to the TF International Securities analyst. Ming Chi Kuo.

My latest survey indicates that the new 14″ and 16″ MacBook Pros will go into mass production in 4Q22. However, Apple has reduced its forecast for new model shipments in 4Q22 by 20-30% ahead of mass production. The reduction in MacBook Pro orders is a structural risk for the ABF substrate and Mini-LED sectors.

Kuo says it’s not common for Apple to cut orders before a new product launch during peak shopping season. That could mean demand is significantly below expectations, suggesting lower year-over-year MacBook shipments in 1H23.

The economic downturn and lower demand for WFH (work from home) are believed to be the main reasons for the reduction in orders. Additionally, newer models will likely only have the M2 processor as their main selling point, a minor update over last year’s model.

Total MacBook shipments forecast in 4Q22 are reduced by 15-20% due to the further reduction in MacBook Pro orders, and MacBook shipments will decrease by 10-15% YoY in 2022 (compared to market consensus down 5 to 10% year-on-year) .

Kuo notes that MacBook’s order reduction is less than that of its competitors; however, he warns that if demand for Apple’s high-end products is not immune to economic recession/inflation, demand for iPhone 14 Pro could also be affected.