London Playbook PM: Parliament’s Rwanda end game (2024)

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald with you today and tomorrow.

MONDAY’S CHEAT SHEET

— Buckle up for a late one: the government hopes to finally pass its controversial Rwanda bill tonight.

— Rishi Sunak said he wants the first flights to Rwanda off the ground in “10-12 weeks.”

— A parliamentary researcher was charged with spying for China.

— Liz Truss is *still* plugging her book — and taking swipes at Joe Biden.

— SCOOP: A senior SNP politician pledged to scrap VAR. He might have been joking.

**A message from The Premier League: Tonight the Premier League and the National League will join forces at an event in the House of Lords. Both competitions, representing 92 clubs across the country, will tell Parliamentarians that “becoming the first major country to introduce a regulator for football could have unintended consequences for clubs of all sizes - so we must get this right.” Find out more.**

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

GET READY FOR A LATE ONE: The latest bout of Rwanda ping pong just kicked off — after Rishi Sunak used a morning press conference to warn Lords not to block his bill again.

That means: Tonightshouldbe the Rwanda legislative end game. But don’t expect opposition peers to go quietly.

How tonight plays out: The Commons just started running through Lords amendments, which MPs are expected to strip out shortly. The bill will then return to the Lords by around 7 p.m. The debate and votes that follow would be the first point where it could pass — but at least one more round of ping pong is expected, which would see the bill return to the Lords for a second round of votes in the other place before midnight.

After that: Whether it passes then, or if the ping pong continues for a third (or even fourth) round and into the real early hours, is up to the peers. The resolve of Labour and crossbench peers is of particular importance.

Not sounding like a quitter: Opposed crossbench peer Alex Carlile warned he and his fellow peers will “keep going as long as necessary.” He told LBC the government is being “extremely disrespectful” to Jewish members of the Lords by keeping them late as Passover begins.

Watch out for: A Lords aide tells my colleague Esther Webber to watch out for how the strength of opposition votes on the amendments holds up as the night goes on, and for the government’s own numbers in the Lords this evening. It will also be worth watching whether ministers concede on any amendments after a round or more of ping pong — particularly Labour peer Des Browne’s amendment proposing an exemption for Afghans who served in the military.

Gulp: One peer points out to Playbook PM that parliament can theoretically sit for upward of 36 hours if it wants to, while a think tanker says they don’t think there is any upper limit to the length of time either (or both) house can sit. No one thinks it’s likely the house will sit any later than Tuesday’s early hours — but if the government and rebel Lords refuse to compromise on the key amendments, it is possible.

And if it does go long: Parliament will end up being on a different day of the week to the rest of the country. Yep, really — the day doesn’t change in parliament until the house is officially adjourned, meaning tomorrow could be Monday … again.

EARLIER IN THE DAY: The prime minister stepped up to the No. 9 Downing Street lectern to offer some sprinklings of detail about the next steps of his Rwanda plan. But but but …

WHOOPS!Moments after Sunak said “we will not be giving away sensitive operational details,” theExpress’ Steph Spyro revealed a briefing documentthat listed … er … operational details. It said the first charter flight was “provisionally scheduled for June (please protect),” and the Home Office is “looking at the possibility of” putting some failed asylum seekers on commercial airlines *before* the first official Rwanda flights take off.

Scoop behind the scoop:The story came about after the intrepid Spyro found a wad of briefing documents left under … umm … the row of Cabinet-level ministers’ chairs at the press conference, Dan Bloom writes (the Mirror’s John Stevenscaught wind of it too). The folded sheaf of A4 marked “official sensitive” was unattended after all five ministers (and various government aides) had left the camera-filled broadcast room in 9 Downing Street. The documents were reclaimed by a No. 10 aide, but not before hacks were able to catch sight of the first few lines.

Ready the leak inquiry!The five ministers in attendance were Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell … Attorney General Victoria Prentis … Illegal Migration Minister Michael Tomlinson … Defense Secretary Grant Shapps … and Home Secretary James Cleverly. The documents — which a No. 10 official says were “out of date” — were found under where Mitchell and Prentis had been sitting, though it’s not clear to whom they belonged. An aide to Prentis said she left nothing behind, while an FCDO official declined to comment on leaks.

SUMMERTIME FLIGHTS: The biggestplannednews line from the press conference was Sunak officially killing off his “spring” deadline for the first deportation flight (a weekafter his spokesperson seemed to drop it). “The first flight will leave in 10 to 12 weeks,” he said, which takes us to the first two weeks of July. Though, in the Q&A, he then told the BBC “we expect” the flight in that timeframe, which sounds like an inch more wriggle room.

More detail: Fan of math Sunak came armed with some numbers. He revealed that the government has readied 200 trained dedicated case workers in the asylum process …Has increased detention spaces in Britain to 2,200 (just under 1,800 were filled in December)…Has500 flight-trained escorts (likely from private firms)ready, with 300 more in training … 25 courtrooms and 150 judges prepped and ready to hear asylum cases … andhasa pre-booked airfield with slots for commercial (not RAF) flights to Rwanda booked.

Here are some more numbers:The Home Officeslipped out datawhile Sunak was speaking revealing that the number of asylum seekers arriving in small boats so far this year has risen by 24 percent, when compared with the same period last year.

Seeing red: Sunak was clear about who he thinks is responsible for the delay in the Rwanda plan — Labour peers. He mentioned the party more than a dozen times, saying Labour peers have “spent weeks holding up the bill.”

Reminder I: Almost none of those Lords defeats would have happened without crossbench peers voting against the government too. But singling out only the Labour peers is more politically neat.

Reminder II: The government could, if it wanted to, have started ping pong before Easter recess, or kept going last week to hold more rounds of ping pong at antisocial hours. It didn’t do either.

Another pledge: Sunak told journalists his priority is to deliver “a regular rhythm, a drumbeat of multiple flights a month over the summer and beyond.” He wouldn’t say how many flights or how many migrants would be on them. Watch this space.

Pull the emergency cord!Once again, the PM did not rule out pledging to leave the European Court of Human Rights if things don’t go to plan. He said: “If it ever comes to a choice between our national security, securing our borders and membership of a foreign court, I’m of course always going to prioritize our national security.”

Tall order: “Success is when the boats have been stopped,” Sunak said. “Completely?” Sky’s Beth Rigby interrupted. He didn’t answer.

Sunak also didn’t rule out… a summer election. Asked by the Express, he repeated the old line that his “working assumption” is the second half of the year. Which includes July.

ELECTION SPECIAL: Playbook PM has heard some whispers and theories in Whitehall and Westminster that the election date could be closely tied to the timing of the first flight.

Theory 1: As the first flight, or flurry of flights, are set to happen in June/July … call an election timed for just afterwards in an effort to ride the momentum train. Say that the plan to stop the boats is working, despite Labour’s efforts to block the Rwanda bill, and that only the Conservatives can finish the job. Bloomberg’s Alex Wickhamhears the samere some Tory hopes the PM hits the potential election sweet spot.

Theory 2: As above … the PM could publicly plan for the first flight and call the election for shortly afterwards. If the ECHR blocks that first flight with more interim measures … put leaving the ECHR at front and center of the manifesto. And fight the rest of that election campaign in July as if the “foreign court” is on the ballot paper.

Alternatively: Sunak’s talk about the need for a “regular rhythm of multiple flights” implies he doesn’t think one flight will move the dial. As LBC’s Natasha Clarksets out here, waiting until he has delivered this would mean … an autumn election at the earliest instead. Which would also leave time for pre-election budget giveaways.

Of course: Playbook PM is speculating and these are all idle theories — and lots of idle theories have been floated and already proved wrong over the last year. But if you’re not speculating about the election timing, how else would you pass the time during hours of ping pong?

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

ESPIONAGE CHARGE: Parliamentary researcher Chris Cash has been charged with spying for China, the Crown Prosecution Service announced this afternoon. He was charged alongside another man, Christopher Berry. Write-up here via POLITICO’s Noah Keate.

CONFIDENCE MAN: Met chief Mark Rowley retains Rishi Sunak’s confidence amid the row over officers’ exchanges with Campaign Against Antisemitism chief Gideon Falter — as long as he “works to rebuild the confidence and trust of not just the Jewish community, but the wider public.” Sunak was responding to questions at his press conference. This one will rumble on, particularly after Tory right-winger Suella Braverman called for Rowley to quit on the Today program.

HEADING TO BERLIN: Rishi Sunak is heading to Berlin for the first time as PM on Wednesday, German media reports. He’ll meet Chancellor Olaf Scholz. POLITICO’s Esther Webber reported back in February that some in Berlin were raising their eyebrows over his failure to visit the capital before now.

NEWS FROM THE OTHER PM: David Cameron vowed to stop Russia from using central Asian countries to dodge sanctions on military goods. ITV’s Anushka Asthana had the story.

POLLING PROBLEMS: The Tories sink to just 20 percent in a Redfield and Wilton poll that’s just dropped — their lowest percentage with the pollster. Redfield and Wilton have had them lower in their polling on just one occasion … the day before Liz Truss resigned.

Polling problems, literally: Savanta admitted to an error in their West Midlands mayoralty poll last week, which put Labour well ahead of incumbent Tory Mayor Andy Street. The new version has Labour candidate Richard Parker and Street neck and neck.

NEVER ENDING TOUR: Liz Truss has been busy launching the U.S. edition of her book at conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation. Joe Biden got a kicking, with Truss saying she doesn’t “believe China fears Joe Biden.” She also said “there will not be” a U.S-U.K. trade deal under the incumbent president.

STRIKE! Fresh rail strikes are coming next month, after Aslef announced their drivers at 16 different companies will walk over at different stages from May 7 until May 9. An overtime ban will also come into place for six days from May 6. This one’s all down to the union’s long-running pay dispute with the government.

MEANWHILE IN SCOTLAND: The Scottish government’s future hangs in the balance with Scottish Green members set to vote on whether to continue in government with the SNP. That Scottish Greens vote will take place at a fancily-named Emergency General Meeting — and Playbook PM hears the date of that vote will become known tomorrow night after the party’s standing orders committee meets. The SNP’s scrapping of climate targets last week pushed some already-disgruntled Green members over the edge into demanding a vote.

EYES EMOJI: The Commons Scottish affairs committee scrapped a planned session with Nicola Sturgeon next week due to a “change in witness availability.”

GETHING PROBLEMS: Plaid Cymru are calling for an independent investigation into a £200k donation to Welsh FM Vaughan Gething’s leadership campaign from environmental company Dauson, owned by a man prosecuted for waste offenses. Gething’s leadership rival Jeremy Miles told the BBC on Sunday he wouldn’t have accepted the money.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

ITS VAR! Lots of people on the internet are sharing Labour leader Keir Starmer’s full-throated support (he said the lawyer in him likes it) for football’s Video Assistant Referee back in 2021 — after the tech’s latest, and needless, killjoy moment in yesterday’s FA Cup semi-final.

New dividing line: “Vote SNP to scrap VAR,” SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn told Playbook PM when asked for his position. Which sounds like a pledge that might be difficult to keep. London mayoral candidate Count Binface has made the same promise.

Nicely timed: The second reading of the Football and Governance Bill is up in the Commons tomorrow, if any MPs fancy wedging their views of VAR into the debate.

IS THAT NORMAL TWEETING YOU’RE DOING? George Galloway — an actual MP — calling Labour’s Paul Waugh “former Mr Puffball.”

JOURNO BEEF: News Agents host Jon Sopel versus i editor Oly Duff. Ding ding.

Round two for Sopes: James Cleverly has also been having a go at the podcaster after he wrongly said the Tories have a majority in the House of Lords. Sopel invited Cleverly on to his podcast to discuss it further.

AROUND THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel’s military intelligence chief Aharon Haliva resigned, saying he takes responsibility for the failures before Hamas’ attack on October 7. The Israel Defense Forces said Haliva would retire once his successor was appointed — via the BBC.

Meanwhile: An independent review into theU.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees found it must improve its screening of staff for pro-Hamas sentiments — the Telegraph has a writeup. The Guardian’s write-up says the review finds Israel “has yet to provide supporting evidence of its claims that employees” of the agency “are members of terrorist organizations.”

IN AMERICA: Opening statements are being heard in Donald Trump’s hush money criminal trial. The former U.S. president branded the whole thing an example of “election interference” — our U.S. colleagues are running a liveblog.

IN INDIA: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modireferred to the country’s Muslims as “infiltrators” during a speech on the general election campaign trail, prompting accusations of using hate to promote his Hindu nationalism — the Times has more details.

IN GERMANY:German authorities arrested three people suspected of supplying information on military technology to a Chinese intelligence service — my colleague Claudia Chiappa has more.

**A message from The Premier League: The Football Governance Bill will introduce banking-style financial regulation for football clubs. All 116 clubs in the football pyramid will face new regulations governing their levels of liquidity, debt and overall expenditure. English football has become the world’s most successful football pyramid. The top tier is voluntarily redistributing £1.6 billion to the rest of the game – more than in any other country or any other sport. We are proud that the global interest in our competitive and compelling football generates unprecedented levels of funding for every single EFL and National League club to make an impact on the pitch and across their communities. Dynamism, new investment and aspiration delivers the exciting football that is at the core of English football’s appeal to fans. The Premier League will continue to advocate for an approach that protects these key features of our game, which has become the envy of world football. Find out more.**

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News(5 p.m.) leads on the Rwanda Bill … BBC News at Sixfocuses on Huw Edwards leaving the BBC … Channel 4 News(7 p.m.) leads on Rwanda.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive(LBC, until 6 p.m.):Government Adviser on Antisemitism John Mann and former Metropolitan Police Deputy Assistant Commissioner Stephen Roberts (both 5.05 p.m.) … London mayoral independent candidate Natalie Campbell (5.35 p.m.) … Shadow Lords Leader Angela Smith (5.50 p.m.).

BBC PM(Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Former U.N. Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Stephen O’Brien.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Labour peer Alf Dubs (5.30 p.m.) … Tory MP Kieran Mullan (5.45 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar(Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Angela Smith and Tory MP Richard Graham (both 5.05 p.m.) … former Met Chief Superintendent Dal Babu (5.20 p.m.).

The News Agents(Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): U.N. Special Rapporteur on trafficking in persons Siobhán Mullally.

Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): American pollster John Zogby.

Tonight With Andrew Marr(LBC, 6 p.m.): Tory MP Danny Kruger … Labour peer Helena Kennedy … Crossbench peer Peter Ricketts.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Migration Watch Director Mike Jones … Institute of Economic Affairs Senior Research Fellow Jamie Whyte.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.):Tory MPs Danny Kruger and Tim Loughton … Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper.

Cross Question with Iain Dale(LBC, 8 p.m.): Tory peer Stewart Jackson … Lib Dem MP Munira Wilson … the Guardian’s Zoe Williams … political commentator Rakib Ehsan.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MP Justine Greening and Deltapoll’s Joe Twyman … Sky News(10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.):The Independent’s Zoë Grünewald and the Sun’s Ryan Sabey.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

PING PONG PINTS: Tory chief whip Simon Hart invited Tory MPs to the PM’s parliamentary office for drinks from 9.30 p.m., to mark “a potentially long and historic night ahead.” The Sun’s Noa Hoffman got the story.

FOOTBALL FUN: The Premier League and National League have an event in the House of Lords this evening.

NO BOOZE BUT: Civitas have an event in parliament’s Macmillan room on childcare policy, with Tory MP Miriam Cates among the speakers. It kicks off at 6.30 p.m.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

COMMONS:Sits from 11.30 a.m.with health questions followed by the second reading of the Football Governance Bill.

LORDS:Former ConHome Editor Paul Goodman will be introduced as a Tory peer (Lord Goodman of Wycombe), before peers debate the Investigatory Powers (Amendment) Billand the Victims and Prisoners Bill.

THAT’S NUMBERWANG:Public sector financesfor March are published at7 a.m.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are thelunchmenus on the estate tomorrow:Bellamy’s:Green thai chicken breast on jasmine rice with steamed pak choi and tomato salad; baked beetroot burger with beef (?) tomato, crisp lettuce and peanut sauce; stir fried teriyaki beef with mangetout, baby sweetcorn and noodles … The Debate:Grilled beef burger, topped with bacon jam in a toasted bap; New Orleans tempeh, okra and sweet pepper jambalaya; Malaysian lemongrass and ginger salmon with peanut satay, vegetables and noodles … Terrace Cafeteria: Polenta turkey escalope with chipotle mayo in a ciabatta roll; chilli con carne with rice and sour cream; vegan mozzarella, tomato and basil parcel with pesto, tomato and couscous …River Restaurant: Baked jacket potato with trimmings; Fusilli arrabbiata served with three tomato and rocket salad; Piri piri chicken served with spicy rice and salsa; Fish finger sandwich served with chips and peas.

BIG MEDIA NEWS: Huw Edwards resigned and left the BBC after 40 years. Here’s the Beeb’s write-up.

JOB LISTING: The TUC are hiring for a press officer. More details via head of comms Antonia Bance here.

ANOTHER ONE GONE: The brilliant Caffe Grana in St James’s Park tube station is closing, via the Spectator’s James Heale.

WHAT TAYLOR SWIFT HAS BEEN READING: The i newspaper’s review of her new album.

In an effort to ride the internet traffic wave: Here’s POLITICO’s official review of Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department, via colleague Sascha O’Sullivan: “Even for those aggressively pro-Taylor Swift fans there was some discontent among the ranks at the length of the mega star’s new album. At 31 songs — or 2 hours — the record felt a bit same-y. And that’s even if you’ve listened to Rishi Sunak promise to stop the boats 678 times this week. There were no doubt some bangers (Florida!!! feat. Florence and the Machine) and tear-jerkers (So Long, London) but unless you’re obsessed with the intricacies of Swift’s love life, this is an album for the celeb herself, not the masses.”

WRITING PLAYBOOK FOR TOMORROW: Sam Blewett.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON: Andrew McDonald.

THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate, and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

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